HONG KONG IPO GUIDE
Looking for probability references, allotment comparisons or new-listing news? Start with the purpose and scope of the information, then choose a tool. Explore the key terms, prediction methods and places to check results.
Choose a toolSTART WITH YOUR QUESTION
Probability estimates, allotment analysis and client-sample statistics answer different questions. See what each provides, then explore the product or open its website.
CHECK THE DEFINITIONS
Before comparing figures, check the IPO, application size and data timestamp, and whether a number is a model estimate or a published allotment result.
The proportion of valid one-lot applications allocated at least one lot. A forecast probability and a realised rate after allotment describe different stages.
Check whether it is a forecast and which application size it refers to. Use the issuer’s published enquiry channels to confirm your own allocation.
These describe demand relative to the shares available for subscription. Subscription and oversubscription multiples may use different calculations; financing estimates are not final valid applications.
Check whether the denominator uses the initial or adjusted public-offer shares, whether clawback is reflected, and the timestamp. Refer to the prospectus and formal announcement for the stated basis.
Groups A and B generally refer to public-offer application pools divided by application value. They are distinct from the offering structure’s allocation Mechanisms A and B.
Read the IPO’s prospectus for pool eligibility, available shares and clawback arrangements, then compare application counts and allocation bases within the relevant pool.
An estimate of allocation quantity under particular model assumptions. Success probability measures the chance of receiving an allocation; expected lots measure quantity. An estimate is not your confirmed allocation.
Check model inputs and application size. Once results are published, use the broker or share registrar’s designated channel to confirm the actual number of shares allocated.
UNDERSTAND THE MODEL
QizAI’s methods page introduces manual analysis, an expert approach that turns established methods into a program, and an AI approach using machine learning. Start here to understand how probability estimates are produced.
Demand, available shares and model assumptions can change the result. Allotment forecasts do not predict post-listing prices or guarantee a personal allocation. Confirm outcomes against the IPO’s allocation announcement and individual enquiry results.
Read prediction methods and technical notesKEEP READING
This historical guide explains how to look up allotment results. It retains its original language and publication date. Examples reflect their original context; check the IPO’s own announcements for current channels, dates and arrangements.
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